The Market Trend Valuation Center developed an evidence-based policy simulation
- Post by: Valentas
- 2022-09-08
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MTVC published a scientific article in the prestigious journal “Journal of Cleaner Production”. The article presents a methodological approach that allows for the analysis of policy decisions. Agent-based modeling approach consists of three main elements:
- Agents. At the time of this publication, the agents consisted of households, which were described taking into account Lithuanian and German statistical data related to demography, income level, etc.
- Environment. During the simulation, the agents interacted in the environment, i.e., in the state where there was a corresponding risk of accidents and offences and pollution taxes.
- Interaction between agents. Agents perform certain actions at each iteration of the simulation. In this case, the simulation step was a month during which households could experience a traffic accident that changed their income and expenses. The main decision for households is when to change from a traditional car to an autonomous one.
At the beginning of the simulation, validation is performed with market statistics, e.g. quantity of accidents, amount of fines collected, number of vehicles, etc. If the indicators calculated at the beginning of the simulation and the actual data match, it can be assumed that further simulation calculations will make it possible to predict how the defined decisions will have an impact in the long term. In this way, it is possible to study and recommend appropriate policy solutions to improve public welfare.
Agent-Based Modeling Approach for autonomous vehicle influence on Countries’ Welfare
The inevitable transition from conventional to self-driving vehicles is a large-scale process involving a series of interactions and related to major challenges for human society. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) considered as a future of road transport, have the potential to significantly reduce transport costs, improve road safety by significantly reducing road accidents and fatalities, make vehicles more environmentally friendly, reduce the travel time and increase the number of passengers. Taking into account all the benefits of AVs, the rapid development of AVs in all countries is becoming a very important factor. This research considers the influence of the welfare of assessment of the households on the development of AVs. To ensure realistic future scenarios, modelling was supported by empirical data. The results obtained from the modelling made it possible to predict a significant reduction in traffic accidents and environmental pollution and to consider some policy recommendations to promote the development and the introduction of AVs. The agent-based modelling was used to develop the market penetration simulation, which allowed quantifying consumer motivations and opportunities in choosing AVs, the development trends of AVs, and providing policy recommendations not only for aggregated country-level situations, but for households and individuals. The proposed model and results may be useful for planners and researchers working on long-term solutions related to safer and less polluting AVs and predicting the buying behaviour of households.
Journal of cleaner production
The Journal of Cleaner Production is an international interdisciplinary journal focusing on the research and practice of cleaner production, environmental, and sustainability. The goal of the magazine is to help societies become more sustainable. The Journal of Cleaner Production is the top publication in the Sustainable Development category in Google Scholar. The journal’s citation index (impact factor) was 11 in 2021. Only high-level research is published in the journal, as 76% of the submitted work is rejected.
Access to the simulation program code